The "30 Over" Series Part Two

About The 30 Over Series

The SP Streamer “30 Over” series will be about 30 players who I think will outperform their ADP and current market value. This idea actually stems from high-stakes player Phil Dussault. In a Twitter thread discussing accountability for analysts, he suggested that a good analyst should be able to come up with 30 to 50 players that they like more than the market. They also should be right on about 60% of them. This was an interesting idea so I decided to test myself this year to see how I do.

This series will be multiple parts because I would like to dive into each player and provide as much evidence I can to support my thought process. There will be both pitching and hitting and I will likely list closers last due to a lot of pending free agents. Here we go!

Part One: Click Here

4) Yoan Moncada, CHW ADP 84

Yoan Moncada was coming off a breakout year heading into the 2020 season. He unfortunately fell short as his performance dropped tremendously. In 231 plate appearances, he finished with a .225 batting average, six home runs, 28 runs, 24 RBI, and zero steals. The underlying stats aren’t much better.

Think that’s bad? Check out the shift in his percentile rankings.

So Mike why the heck do you like him? If you look at Moncada’s year-to-year changes he has increased his exit velocity and hard-hit rate for two straight years. His xwOBA has always hovered over .300 and his SLG always over .400. Get the point? For the past two years, he has either consistently put up the same numbers or improved each year. A 25-year-old having a random out of the ordinary year after having two seasons of consistent to improving stats? Call me skeptical, especially in a whacky short season. It’s like the weirdo who buys the railroads in Monopoly, can’t trust it.

One major reason to believe in his rebound also stems from Moncada having COVID-19. In a wonderful article from NBC Sports here are some quotes from the man himself.

"Definitely my body hasn’t felt the same after the virus," he said Thursday through team interpreter Billy Russo. "I feel a lack of energy, strength, it’s just a weird feeling. It’s different.”

He continues.

"When I got to Chicago before I tested positive, I was feeling strong and with energy. Now, it’s like a daily battle to try to find that strength, that energy to go through the day.”