The "30 Over" Series Part Three

About The 30 Over Series

The SP Streamer “30 Over” series will be about 30 players who I think will outperform their ADP and current market value. This idea actually stems from high-stakes player Phil Dussault. In a Twitter thread discussing accountability for analysts, he suggested that a good analyst should be able to come up with 30 to 50 players that they like more than the market. They also should be right on about 60% of them. This was an interesting idea so I decided to test myself this year to see how I do.

This series will be multiple parts because I would like to dive into each player and provide as much evidence I can to support my thought process. There will be both pitching and hitting and I will likely list closers last due to a lot of pending free agents. Here we go!

Part One: Click Here

Part Two: Click Here

7) Kyle Hendricks, CHC ADP 93

Kyle Hendricks is just flat out undervalued every single year. In 2020 he pitched 81.1 innings with a 2.88 ERA, 3.55 FIP, and 17.8 K-BB%. This now means he has pitched seven seasons in the majors and still has yet to finish with an ERA over four. Actually since 2016, he hasn’t had an ERA over 3.46. The worst WHIP of his career was 1.19. Overall in his career, he has averaged a 3.12 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Talk about consistency.

The main argument is that Hendricks doesn’t give you a lot of strikeouts. A very valid argument, but the super high floor more than makes up for it. Hendricks does everything you want in a pitcher, he induces a lot of weak contact, limits walks, limits home runs, and has a deep arsenal.

Overall he throws a sinker, changeup, four-seam, and curveball. The sinker is used as his go-to pitch when he needs a strikeout (66.9 Zone%). While it does let up solid contact from time to time his utilization of the pitch makes up for it. His changeup hits on all angles. It creates a ton of whiffs, a ton of chases, and he hits the zone with it often making it arguably the best pitch in his arsenal. His four-seam works really well with the sinker in terms of tunneling. Hitters only had a .256 wOBA and .196 BAA on this pitch. Last but not least is his curveball, this is his strikeout pitch. With above-average horizontal movement hitters only had a 7 wRC+ against it.

Hendricks exhausts his opponents with craftiness and precision. Sure the strikeout rate won’t ever be there but you are buying perhaps the most “sure thing” in terms of ratios. He once again seems to be overlooked for 2021.

8) Rowdy Tellez, TOR ADP 271

Whenever I hear Rowdy’s name for some reason I hear the name Roddy Rowdy Piper. For those who don’t know he was a wrestler with the then WWF. Anyway, Rowdy had a nice little season for himself hitting .283 with eight home runs, 20 runs, and 23 RBI. The guy did everything right, he lowered his strikeout rate, lowered his chase rate, and upped his contact rate.

Rowdy was able to improve his discipline by taking a more aggressive approach at the plate. He swung at the first pitch 38.6% of the time, over eight percent more than the year prior. He also was a lot more aggressive in the zone swinging over seven percent more of the time. This increased his contact rate tremendously and really helped propel him into being a better hitter.

His improved plate discipline might also stem from his two-strike approach. Both his strikeout looking and strikeout swinging rates dropped compared to the year prior. The Blue Jays hitting coaches have been known to help players when it comes to plate discipline and it looks like they have truly helped out Tellez.

There is a lot of love for Rowdy Tellez in the fantasy baseball Twitter community and his price could very well rise. Right now he seems to be a good late-round grab, if he can hit in the .270 range with power he will certainly become a profitable pick.

9) Luis Castillo, CIN ADP 27

I’m not going to dive too deep into Luis Castillo because anyone who follows me knows I am a huge Castillo fan. I personally have him ranked as the fourth-best pitcher for 2020 and think he deserves some more love.

When it comes to pitchers I love to take grab ones who induce a lot of groundballs and a lot of strikeouts. The reason being is they won’t let up home runs, something that hurts a lot of pitchers and can lead to a lot of blow-ups. With strikeouts, well who doesn’t love strikeouts? In his career, Castillo has averaged a 52.9% ground ball rate and a 27.0% strikeout rate. In 2020 he was one of five pitchers with a GB% over 50% and a K% over 25.0%. The others were Framber Valdez, Clayton Kershaw, Sonny Gray, and Hyun-Jin Ryu.

Castillo is able to perform so well by having an elite repertoire that possesses elite movement. Last season he had three pitches with an SwStr% over 15.0% and one of them was his four-seam fastball. Fastball’s on average have an SwStr% around 10.4%. He was able to achieve this by adding velocity and movement. Most importantly Castillo has one of the best changeups in the league. It not only breaks vertically but also horizontally making it virtually impossible to touch.

Castillo has it all, while some might point out the poor walk rate it doesn’t really worry me for two reasons. He has always had walk issues and been successful and that’s because Castillo wants betters to chase and he won’t give in to hitters. Tag that with the low HR/9 because of it and you have a walk rate that isn’t really too much of a crutch. Luis Castillo has everything I want in a pitcher and more.

10) Jordan Montgomery, NYY ADP 229

On the surface, it looked like New York Yankees pitcher Jordan Montgomery had a very disappointing season. In his ten starts, he produced a 5.11 ERA, 19.7 K-BB%, and 1.30 WHIP. But the underlying numbers show big-time improvement is coming. His 3.84 SIERA, 3.87 FIP, .320 BABIP, and 65.0 LOB% all show that Montgomery got hit with some bad luck. But we won’t stop there, there is more!

Montgomery has a four-pitch arsenal and three of those produced a positive pVAL, meaning he knows how to utilize his pitch mix really well. He is armed with two breaking balls in a curveball and changeup. The changeup is his best pitch overall with a 39.4 O-Swing%, .141 ISO, and 23.7 SwStr%. With some nice glove-side run his changeup really excels because of the ten MPH difference compared to his sinker and four-seam. As for his curveball, it has a violent vertical break to it that results in a lot of chases and weak contact. Opposing hitters only had a .236 wOBA against it. The four-seam does get crushed and while it produces a good amount of whiffs it would be nice to see him cut the usage down.

I purposely left the sinker for last. The sinker is his most thrown pitch last season and it seemed to run into some bad luck. Let’s look at the splits of this pitch by month last season:

The sinker greatly improved in the last month of the season. Opposing hitters weren’t getting under it as much and it induced weaker contact while creating more whiffs. His main pitch was trending the right way. This was mainly due to his command. In August he left his sinker in the middle of the zone 38.1% of the time. In September he brought that percentage down to 30.0%. September is where Montgomery really excelled and in his last three starts he averaged eight strikeouts a game.

With his sinker taking a step forward and two good breaking balls, Montgomery seems like a solid late-round option who will outperform his current ADP. If the strikeouts stick he could not only give you draft day profit but turn into the best draft day steal of 2021.