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The "30 Over" Series Part Three

About The 30 Over Series


The SP Streamer “30 Over” series will be about 30 players who I think will outperform their ADP and current market value. This idea actually stems from high-stakes player Phil Dussault. In a Twitter thread discussing accountability for analysts, he suggested that a good analyst should be able to come up with 30 to 50 players that they like more than the market. They also should be right on about 60% of them. This was an interesting idea so I decided to test myself this year to see how I do.


This series will be multiple parts because I would like to dive into each player and provide as much evidence I can to support my thought process. There will be both pitching and hitting and I will likely list closers last due to a lot of pending free agents. Here we go!


Part One: Click Here

Part Two: Click Here


7) Kyle Hendricks, CHC ADP 93


Kyle Hendricks is just flat out undervalued every single year. In 2020 he pitched 81.1 innings with a 2.88 ERA, 3.55 FIP, and 17.8 K-BB%. This now means he has pitched seven seasons in the majors and still has yet to finish with an ERA over four. Actually since 2016, he hasn’t had an ERA over 3.46. The worst WHIP of his career was 1.19. Overall in his career, he has averaged a 3.12 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Talk about consistency.


The main argument is that Hendricks doesn’t give you a lot of strikeouts. A very valid argument, but the super high floor more than makes up for it. Hendricks does everything you want in a pitcher, he induces a lot of weak contact, limits walks, limits home runs, and has a deep arsenal.


Overall he throws a sinker, changeup, four-seam, and curveball. The sinker is used as his go-to pitch when he needs a strikeout (66.9 Zone%). While it does let up solid contact from time to time his utilization of the pitch makes up for it. His changeup hits on all angles. It creates a ton of whiffs, a ton of chases, and he hits the zone with it often making it arguably the best pitch in his arsenal. His four-seam works really well with the sinker in terms of tunneling. Hitters only had a .256 wOBA and .196 BAA on this pitch. Last but not least is his curveball, this is his strikeout pitch. With above-average horizontal movement hitters only had a 7 wRC+ against it.


Hendricks exhausts his opponents with craftiness and precision. Sure the strikeout rate won’t ever be there but you are buying perhaps the most “sure thing” in terms of ratios. He once again seems to be overlooked for 2021.


8) Rowdy Tellez, TOR ADP 271


Whenever I hear Rowdy’s name for some reason I hear the name Roddy Rowdy Piper. For those who don’t know he was a wrestler with the then WWF. Anyway, Rowdy had a nice little season for himself hitting .283 with eight home runs, 20 runs, and 23 RBI. The guy did everything right, he lowered his strikeout rate, lowered his chase rate, and upped his contact rate.


Rowdy was able to improve his discipline by taking a more aggressive approach at the plate. He swung at the first pitch 38.6% of the time, over eight percent more than the year prior. He also was a lot more aggressive in the zone swinging over seven percent more of the time. This increased his contact rate tremendously and really helped propel him into being a better hitter.


His improved plate discipline might also stem from his two-strike approach. Both his strikeout looking and strikeout swinging rates dropped compared to the year prior. The Blue Jays hitting coaches have been known to help players when it comes to plate discipline and it looks like they have truly helped out Tellez.