Target 5000: The Run-over

Do you ever have a splitting headache after looking at your fantasy team’s offensive output but don’t know why? Usually, this is the result of one of two things – you drank heavily the night before, or you are a victim of the “Run-Over.”

Since Runs Scored have such a high correlation with Home Runs, RBI, Batting Average, and even Stolen Bases, we in the medical community have found that most teams that are leading a league near the top in this category. And since this affliction has the same symptoms, clearly we need to study the movie “The Hangover” so that we can better handle this category.

1. You Can’t Afford to Fall Behind in Runs; It Creates Too Many Highly Similar Memories:

Alan: “What if Doug’s dead? I can’t afford to lose somebody close to me again; it hurts too much. I was so upset when my grandpa died.”

Phil: “How’d he die?”

Alan: “World War II.”

Phil: “Died in battle?”

Alan: “No, he was skiing in Vermont, it was just during World War II.”

2. No Matter How Many Runs Your Team Scores, Don’t Expect to Run into Historical Figures:

Alan: “Can I ask you another question?”

Lisa: “Sure.”

Alan: “You probably get this a lot. This isn’t the real Caesar’s Palace, is it?”

Lisa: “What do you mean?”

Alan: “Did, umm… did Caesar live here?”

Lisa: “No.”

Alan: “I didn’t think so.”

3. Don’t Try to Use Sarcasm on People That Won’t Get It:

Alan: “Guys. Guys. What about the tiger? What if he got out?”

Phil: “Oh, f*ck! I keep forgetting about the goddamn tiger! How the f*ck did he get in there?”

Stu (looking at Alan): “I don’t know, because I DON’T REMEMBER!”

Phil: “Shh! Stu. Stu, keep it down.”

Alan (trying to be helpful to Stu): “One of the side effects of roofies is memory loss.”

Stu: “You are literally too stupid to insult.”

Target 5000 for Runs Scored

I know some of you were unimpressed by my analytic discovery that Wins were being awarded at the same pace as in previous seasons. So I worked extra hard on the Runs Scored category to make up for it. I can report that 10,639 Runs have been scored in MLB as of July 1st – which represents 49.3% of the season. That would pace out to 21,580 Runs for the full season 2021. That’s 8.5% lower than the 23,467 in 2019 (and just 0.3% lower than the 21,630 in 2018).

The next question then is - Are Main Event fantasy owners accumulating Runs Scored more slowly because of this 8.5% drop? The answer – yes – but the category is not down as much as MLB as a whole.

In determining the TARGET 5000 for Runs Scored, I calculated the total that yields 500 points - since reaching 500 points out of 645 in all 10 categories is enough for 5000 points and a top 20 overall position). Main Event fantasy owners needed 1141 Runs in 2019 to reach the 77.5% level, and MLB has played 49.3% of the 2021 season as of July 1st. Therefore, between 528 and 529 Runs are needed to be at 500 points in this category as of 7/1. On a straight-line basis, this would require a total of 1072 Runs Scored to earn 500 points in this year’s Main Event Contest, 6% below the 2019 standard.

2019 Full Season: 77.5% level in Main Event = 1141 Runs Scored

2021 on July 1st: 77.5% (Target 5000) level = 528.5 Runs Scored in 49.3% of the season

2021 Full Season Target: 77.5% (Target 5000) level = 1072 Runs Scored (6% below the 2019 level)

Leading Run Scorers

As of July 1st, there are 22 hitters with 50 or more runs scored. In examining the list, the names are some of the top hitting stars in MLB this season – such as Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero, Ronald Acuna, and Fernando Tatis. All of these 22 players have proven to be fine investments in fantasy baseball thus far this season, and these 22 players alone represent 11.5% of all MLB runs scored this season.

In addition, I am displaying the 20 teams that have scored the most runs as of July 1st. You can see that the Houston Astros are by far the highest-scoring team, more than 40 runs ahead of the second-place Red Sox, and more than 50 runs ahead of the third-and-fourth place Blue Jays and Dodgers.

FAAB Review

After Sunday’s FAAB run have crossed the halfway point of the season – and on the morning of July 5th MLB has played about 52% of the season. Main Event fantasy owners have completed 15 of 27 FAAB periods (56%), and have been applying their original $1000 FAAB. Here are the Main Event FAAB totals across 645 teams including the winning bids from the July 4th FAAB run:

For all fifteen FAAB runs thus far, the average Main Event team has won 27.9 bids this season (1.86 per week) and spent $732. This spending leaves the average team with $268 of FAAB, dropping their average weekly budget for the remaining 12 periods to $22.33.

Ranger Danger

In the fifteenth FAAB period of the season held on July 4th, 10 players were picked up in 19 or more leagues (see below). Ranger Suarez, who might step into the ever-changing Philadelphia closer role, was targeted in 41 leagues. Gavin Sheets, the White Sox first baseman was added in 38 leagues, as was Jace Peterson, who is filling in for Kolten Wong in Milwaukee and hitting well.

The Wow Bid of the Week

The Main Event Wow Bid of the Week – going to the largest bid of each FAAB period – is awarded to the top bid of $130 for Cole Irvin, who was available in just one Main Event league. This winning bid beat a runner-up amount of only $30, so this owner could have saved some FAAB. The Oakland lefty has won two of his last three starts and could be a factor in fantasy leagues in the second half.

The Century Club has just 1 (yes, one) Members This Week

The Cole Irvin bid was the only SUCCESSFUL bid (forget that – it was the only bid PERIOD) of over $100 during this FAAB run – the lowest number of the season – and again this week there were zero $200+ free agents as Main Event owners have pulled back their bids to try to preserve their remaining FAAB dollars.

Instead of showing the players dropped the most – you can see below some of the most INTERESTING drops. I’ve focused this week on the past hopefuls for owners trying to commandeer saves – it seems the closer carousel keeps spinning and no one knows the best place to get off.

Update From the Colosseum: Four Players from Three Weeks Ago…Updated Results: 9 Good Adds out of 44:

We’ll keep tabs on the 4 most added players from 3 weeks ago to see how some of the biggest free-agent acquisitions have been doing for their fantasy owners. These are the players acquired in the most leagues on 6/13 (stats are from 6/14 through 7/4):

· Sammy Long – 20.0 IP; 18 K; 1 Win; 6.30 ERA; 1.30 WHIP – gladiator down

· Christian Arroyo – 3-for-12 before hitting the IL with a knee contusion – just now returning - nope

· Dan Vogelbach – .194 in 31 AB with 1 HR – out for 6 weeks – I don’t think so

· Kolby Allard – 23.0 IP; 16 K; 1 Wins; 3.52 ERA; 1.04 WHIP – well, what do you know! I think we have our 9th winner!!

So with one thumbs up the record moves to (9 thumbs up – 20%; 23 thumbs down – 52%; 12 side thumbs – 27%). The 9 top adds (based on their first three weeks of production): Cesar Valdez/Yermin Mercedes (4/25); Lou Trivino/Huascar Ynoa (5/9); Alex Wood (5/16); James Kaprielian/Hansel Robles (5/23); Harold Ramirez (5/30); and Kolby Allard (6/13). It’s worth also pointing out that Valdez, Mercedes, and Ynoa probably aren’t considered wins by their owners now, but we’re focusing on the first three weeks, so we’ll keep the analysis consistent.

Back to the Dussault Mines

Congratulations to Philippe Dussault as stayed at the top of the 2021 Main Event with one of his three Main Event entries – with a healthy margin of 114.0 over his closest pursuer, Gregg Martin. Philippe has a total of 5586.0 points, and it’s interesting to note that the top 20 as a group are averaging more points every week. Last week, for example, the top twenty averaged 5250.1, and this week it has risen to 5263.5.

Philippe was anxious to talk about his contest-leading team, but I knew that in order to be a true journalist you have to ask the tough questions. So I gently inquired – “What is wrong with your worst Main Event team? I mean, it’s all the way down at 50th out of 645 in the overall standings – do you find that embarrassing – do you have trouble looking in the mirror?” Phil looked at me and said: “Listen, pal, you are just an idiot.” I think that’s a fair comment, but I have to say that when he said the word “pal” it didn’t make me feel like we were close friends. Maybe that’s just the way they talk in Canada though? I’ll assume we’re on good terms and will plan to invite him to dinner in Las Vegas next March…

Let’s check in on our previous leaders – are they still in the top 20? No – two of our previous leaders are not in the top 20 overall!

· Brian Slack (4/5): 13th place (just discovered that the Fifth Circuit Court is in New Orleans so has asked for a delay while he drives there)

· Tyler Jung (4/12): In 14th and 15th (has been on the phone with MLB trying to get them information regarding how to open his Power Point document)

· John Pausma (4/19): Now in 5th overall (is still asking for $1110 of FAAB for his Main Event team but is waiting outside a house with “Amber” on the mailbox – we don’t have the heart to tell him this isn’t Greg Ambrosius’ house)

· Two-time leader Chris Uram (4/26 & 5/3): Close to the top twenty in 22nd place (has posted a message on the NFBC board and Twitter asking that Todd Whitestone be removed from these platforms)

· Abdul Madani (5/10): Fading a bit at 37th (it seems he has spent too much time on the architectural drawings for the gazebo which is planned to hold his new Main Event Trophy)

· Samuel Horton (5/17): Dropped out of the top 20 to 30th (has been warming to the offer of green eggs and ham in a tree – but is requesting that the idea of a bush be eliminated)

· Douglas Roth (5/24 and 6/21): Now in 7th place, our financial expert is requesting to hold a seminar at First Pitch Arizona to explain why a Roth IRA is superior to a Traditional IRA

· Scott Kotchek (5/31 & 6/7): Is now in 11th and wants all Main Event owners to know that he is petitioning Merriam Webster to change the word for {An informal social gatherings for coffee and conversation} from coffee klatch to “coffee KOTCH.

· Clark Olson (6/14): Still solidly in 3rd (and 4th) and is confident in his solemn vow to be back on the throne by the end of July. I’m the true king of Westeros – I am the only Main Event owner with an Iron Throne in my living room!

The Dominators

I’ve renamed this section since there are three Main Event owners who are..umm…dominating. Philippe Dussault (The Robot) is 1st, 8th, and 50th (50th – haha, sorry Philippe!) in the Main Event, and has admitted that he has a degree in robotics from MIT.

But the other two stories are King Clark Olson – 3rd – 4th – 40th – 131st – and 237th (gotta kinda feel sorry for Clark’s 237th team) and Tyler Jung – 14th – 15th – and 32nd. Many of you have written in expressing surprise that these three players are better than some people that write about the Main Event – FOR A LIVING! It’s crazy, right? Right? Hello?

In addition, we’re following the individual league races this season. It is no small feat to win a league championship in the Main Event regardless of a fantasy owner’s overall place, and the top three in each league earn a cash prize and deserve recognition. You can see the 43 leagues listed in the chart below (with those in the top 20 positions highlighted in blue) – you can find your assigned league number for the purposes of this article number by referring to the chart at the end of my first article of the season (use this link https://www.spstreamer.com/post/and-they-re-off) – which displays the league draft location, draft date and time, and Official NFBC League Number.

Out of the 43 Main Event leagues – only 5 had new leaders this week. In addition, the top three places stayed in the exact same order in 18 of 43 leagues. There’s plenty of time to move up of course, but 38 fantasy owners held the lead from one week to the next, showing that they have solid teams that will be difficult to catch.

Fourteen Main Event Stars

There are multiple NFBC players who are in the top three places of two or more Main Event Leagues, which is extremely impressive. The most notable players as of July 5th are listed below (only included are those with at least one Main Event league-leading team) – these 14 fantasy players occupy 22 of the first place positions; 3 of the second place positions; and 6 of the third-place spots, or 31 of the 129 top three placements.



3. TWO FIRST PLACE TEAMS & ONE SECOND – Phillippe Dussault

4. TWO 1st – Mark Srebro; Andrew Geller; Stephen Jupinka; Jeremy Brader

5. ONE 1st & TWO 3rd – John Pausma

6. ONE 1st & ONE 2nd – Dalton Del Don; Samuel Horton

7. ONE 1st; TWO 3rd - Brian Slack

8. ONE 1st; ONE 3rd – Dave Shovein; David Miller; Chris Fessler