Updated: Dec 22, 2020
The season ended over a month ago so I am a little late on this analysis. I wanted to run some numbers and haven't had the time until recently. When it came to the 2020 season we were able to enjoy some really great results.
The record: 52-33
When it comes to deciding what is a win or loss in terms of streaming there are certain starts where it isn't so clear. What I personally aim for are two things, did the pitcher pitch at least five innings? And did the pitcher help you out in two of the main categories (strikeouts, WHIP, ERA)?
The stat line: 433.1 innings pitched, 3.93 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 9.10 K/9.
This stat line is flat out awesome (at least in my opinion). To be honest I'm not sure we will ever beat this but hey you never know. This was a big improvement from 2019 where my final ERA was 4.43 and my final WHIP was 1.30. Streaming pitchers under 30% owned is very difficult and anything under the league average 4.50 ERA is a win in my book.
With that being said what did we do differently? We became more calculated. We ran every streamer through the spreadsheet (which I posted every day) helping layout all of the options. What also made a big difference was before the 2020 season began I looked back at the 2019 season to see which stats worked the best. I came up with a formula. One that cannot be used every day but when we have the opportunity it gives us a good chance at succeeding.
The Streaming Formula:
1) Opponents wRC+ under 70 in the last seven days.
2) Opponents SwStr% over 12.0% in the last seven days.
3) Pitcher is pitching at home.
2019 Results: 403.1 innings pitched, 3.77 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 8.39 K/9
2020 Results: 118.2 innings pitched, 4.02 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 9.25 K/9
With a season and a half of doing this, there isn't nearly enough of a data sample to see what truly works yet. Something we will have to keep working on in the future.
Where do I have to improve? It's funny I have noticed in the two seasons that I have done this that streaming wins and losses can come in bunches. I have yet to figure out how to get out of those losing streaks and it might take some out of the box thinking. Also, another thing I noticed is that when a pitcher gives me a streaming win I tend to gravitate towards them again. That shouldn't happen (mostly). Lastly, do not chance streaming pitchers who are making their MLB debut. It burned me more often than not.
Here are some other results from the 2020 season streamers.
3504 innings pitched, 5.17 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 8.13 K/9.
Now you see why anything under the league average 4.50 ERA is a win streaming wise.
When The Pitchers Opponent Home/Away wOBA is under .300
134.1 innings pitched, 6.01 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 9.30 K/9
This is only a half month sample, I added it late in the season.
When The Pitchers Opponent's OPS Is Under .700 In The Last Seven Days
265.1 innings pitched, 3.87 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 7.94 K/9
This also was added late and is only a half month sample. Might be something here.
When The Pitchers Opponent's wRC+ Is Under 70 In The Last Seven Days
307.1 innings pitched, 4.13 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 8.02 K/9
Pitchers K-BB% Was Over 19.9% In The Last 14 Days
300 innings pitched, 5.37 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and 8.13 K/9
Those are some of the stats I went through and just further proves that one stat alone just won't do. You have to find the secret sauce, the best combination for you to succeed. Mine lays within the streaming sheet I posted every day during the season. Hopefully some of you found this intriguing and I would be interested to see if someone can find anything interesting when it comes to streamer statistics.
Here is a link to the sheet if anyone wants to copy it and play with the numbers: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KC9F3Kt6m_xaishl4jNK95NHQC_ZFDKvCsG6M3k7ZTc/edit?usp=sharing