Morning Read: Bailey Ober has an impressive outing yesterday finishing with a total CSW rate of 35% and with a CSW rate on his four-seam of 41%. Overall it was a great start for him against the White Sox offense pitching 5.1 innings with no earned runs and six strikeouts. When it comes to the rest of the season Ober might end up being a valuable pitcher that you can find on the waiver wire.
Since July first Ober has increased in whiff rate and lowered his contact rate against him. The barrel rate against him has lowered, the average exit velocity against him is down, and the max exit velocity has diminished by over two points. I am purposely pointing out these statistics because of his home run rate. That's what has been killing Ober thus far this season. Between May and June his HR/9 sat at a 2.55 rate. To boot his HR/FB% was 21.2%. Now if you look at Ober's minor league numbers his highest HR/9 rate was 0.84. He was not one to let up a ton of home runs. This is where xFIP comes into play. Sticking with May to June his xFIP was at 4.29. Now again move forward to his numbers since July 1st where he is letting up weaker contact, his HR/9 was 1.95 (much lower) and his xFIP was 3.96. None of this includes his wonderful start from last night so these should all now be even lower.
A big proponent of this is the fact that he has had much better command with his pitches. Between May and June, he left his pitches in the heart of the zone 29.3% of the time leading, but since July 1st he has dropped that percentage to 25.3%. The fact of the matter is, Ober is inducing weaker contact, letting up fewer home runs, and his ERA should start trending towards his xFIP. I see him as a solid speculative add and a pitcher who could end up helping you improve your ratios.
* I will be on vacation starting Saturday 8/7 until Tuesday 8/17. I will try my best to update the chart when possible but if not I will be doing this article every day.*
Today's Streamer: Vladimir Gutierrez takes on the Braves and while some might question this decision I will say this, there aren't many good options and sometimes you ride the hot hand. What I do find interesting about him is the fact that he is starting to lean on the changeup more. It has good speed change and he commands it well. I think it more so plays really well because it is a loopy changeup and moves vertically like his curveball. In other words, I think it helps create more deception and now deepens his arsenal. Time will tell as this is a good test for him.
Side note: Tanner Houck would be my real pick but they never let him go five innings so how can I do that if I need five innings to count it as a streaming win?
Shallow League Option: Logan Webb, do I really need to say anything about how good Logan Webb is? I have come a long way with him. You all were right.
Deep League Option: Erick Fedde was one of a few horrible options. If you can stomach rolling out Brubaker go for it. He has broken my heart too many times. Otherwise, try Fedde but I'd advise against it.
Looking For Strikeouts: Logan Webb, Vladimir Gutierrez, Tanner Houck and Kyle Muller.
Looking For Quality Starts: Logan Webb, Vladimir Gutierrez, and Marco Gonzales.
Looking For Wins: Logan Webb, Vladimir Gutierrez, and Marco Gonzales.
Looking For Ratios: Logan Webb, Vladimir Gutierrez, and Tanner Houck.
Tomorrow's Streamers: Adbert Alzolay (streamer of the week).
The Day After: Kyle Freeland.
Link to full chart: Here
Explanation of chart: Here
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