Morning Read: It is time to take a look at Patrick Corbin! Let's first look at surface stats. The 10.47 ERA (!) comes with an 8.27 ERA, 8.36 FIP, 4.9 K-BB%, and 5.42 SIERA. That ain't good. On the other end, he does have a .340 BABIP (.311 career average) and 56.4 LOB%. But to make this all worse, all of his expected stats, which are all descriptive, are just as bad. So what happened?
Let's talk velocity. In 2019 where Corbin had an amazing season his four-seam averaged 91.8 MPH and his slider 81.7 MPH. Last year those dipped to 90.2 MPH and 79.2 MPH. Currently, his fastball and slider sit at 90.8 MPH and 78.3 MPH. Personally, I can see the four-seam eventually hitting close to his 91.8 MPH mark in 2019. Once the weather warms up and his arm is looser this becomes a possibility. But the slider? What the heck is happening there?
With lower velocity on the slider, it has developed a different shape to the pitch. It actually moves more. What I did notice is a big drop in K% with this pitch. The reason being is that hitters aren't chasing it outside of the zone. So a few things could be happening here. With the drop in velocity, he doesn't have great command on it and is putting it in the zone too often (41.8% Zone rate). His sequencing is off and isn't fooling hitters. Or the drop in velocity is making it easier for hitters to spot the pitch.
This is a tough one. My gut tells me that he seems to have lost faith in his slider and that's why he is throwing it less. He lost faith in his sinker and that's why he is using the four-seam more. I'll be honest with you, I'm not sure what his deal is. If you want to hold, I don't blame you. If you want to move on, I don't blame you either.
Today's Streamer: Our streamer of the week! Mike Minor draws a perfect matchup. Minor has been good as of late with a 21.7 K-BB% as well as a 2.79 ERA on the road (small sample alert!). I will gladly start him over the Pirates abysmal .598 OPS in the last seven days and their 66 wRC+ against LHP.
Shallow League Option: Mike Minor.
Deep League Option: J.A. Happ gets the Indians who are meh all around and seemingly love to make pitchers look good. Alex Wood is tempting as well but the Rockies can hit LHP so I am a little hesitant.
Looking For Strikeouts: Alex Wood.
Looking For Quality Starts: Mike Minor.
Looking For Wins: Mike Minor.
Looking For Ratios: Mike Minor.
Tomorrow's Streamers: Dylan Cease/Ryan Yarbrough/Luke Weaver
The Day After: Jon Gray/Joe Ross
Link to full chart: Here
Explanation of chart: Here