Power Hitters Post 200 ADP
In 2019 the record for all-time home runs in one season was broken when 6,776 home runs were hit. Breaking the previous record of 5,694 set just 3 years ago in 2017. With home runs on the rise, it is becoming imperative in fantasy to make sure that you’re getting enough power in your lineup. There are a lot of ways to build a fantasy roster, this year the preferred method seems to be to grab speed and pitching early. With a premium placed on speed in the early rounds, it is important to have targets later in the draft to boost up your power numbers. Here are a few players to target if you find yourself lacking in home runs after pick 200.
CJ Cron 1B, DET (NFBC ADP 249)
On December 21, 2019, Cron signed a 1 year deal with the Detroit Tigers. With the Tigers deep in a rebuild, and Miguel Cabrera now at the point in his career in which he is best utilized as a DH, there is not anyone on the active roster in Detroit that is likely to push Cron for playing time. Over the previous 2 years with Tampa Bay and Minnesota, Cron has hit 30, and 25 home runs, respectively with less than full-time at-bats. Cron is coming off arguably the best year of his career, posting career-low K% of 21.6%, a career-high hard-hit rate of 44.6%. This led to Cron producing a 15% barrel rate, which was in the top 5% of baseball.
Steamer projects Cron for a .261/.324/.494 slash line with 28 home runs, 69 runs, and 80 RBI. His projection compares favorably to Edwin Encarnacion (.246/.346/.499, 35HR, 81R, 92RBI) who is going nearly 80 picks earlier at pick 172.
Rougned Odor 2B, TEX (NFBC ADP 227)
33, 30, 30, are the home run totals that Odor has put up in his last 3 full seasons in 2016, 2017, and 2019 respectively. For Odor these home run numbers come with an ugly batting average (.204 in 2019), this was largely due to his 30.6% K rate, which was in the bottom 5% in all of baseball. Odor is a streaky hitter, but in September of 2019, he ended the season on a high, belting 9 home runs with a .261 avg over the 1-month span. Steamer projects Odor to slash .235/.302/.456 with 29 HR and 13 SB in 2020, giving owners in need of power and speed a good value at pick 227.
Kyle Seager 3B, SEA (NFBC ADP 353)
One thing that Kyle Seager has maintained over his entire career is good walk rates and below league average k rates, while always hitting at least 20 home runs. After a down season in 2018 in which Seager slashed .221/.273/.400, he bounced back to something closer to career norms with a .239/.321/.468 slash line and 23 home runs over just 443 plate appearances. Steamer projects Seager to hit .242 /.312/.445 with 26 home runs in 2020. Being on the Mariners, Seager is unlikely to produce the counting stats of the top players at the position. However, with his elevated ADP, going around players like David Fletcher, and Mike Yastrzemski; he has a good chance to provide value for power-hungry teams late in drafts.
Didi Gregorious SS, PHI (NFBC ADP 202)
While Didi’s ADP is the closest to 200 of the group in this article he might be the best value of the bunch. Gregorious is projected by Steamer to hit 24 home runs, 13th among shortstops, while also providing helpful counting stats 70R and 83RBI. There is an upside for more home runs and counting stats hitting in the friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park and currently projected by Roster Resource to bat fifth behind OBP machines Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins. Currently going as the 23rd shortstop off the board Didi could be an outstanding value in 2020 drafts.
Justin Upton OF, LAA (NFBC ADP 227)
2019 was a throw away season for Justin Upton as he sustained multiple injuries and only appeared in 63 games. Coming into 2019 Upton had appeared in at least 145 games in every season from 2011-2018. In his last full season, 2018, Upton slashed.257/.344/.463 with 30 HR, 80 R, and 85 RBI. His batted ball data backed up his power production as he had a 14% barrel rate, which was in the top 5% of all of baseball.
Steamer projects Upton for a .240/.325/.456 slash line, with 30 HR, 81R, and 91 RBI. If Upton is able to return to full health he will have a chance to produce some of the best counting stats of his career in a much-improved Angels lineup, while providing excellent value for owners who take a chance of him in 2020.
Mark Canha OF, OAK (NFBC ADP 268)
Late career breakouts are a dangerous thing to buy into in fantasy, but can often lead to profit the following season, see Whit Merrifield. Canha showed excellent plate discipline in 2019 with a 21.5% strikeout rate, and a 13.5% walk rate. The surface numbers were backed up with a minuscule O-swing of just 25% and a swinging strike rate of just 8.4%. Baseball Savant’s player similarity tool is imperfect but in 2019 Mark Canha’s batted ball profile was most similar to Kris Bryant, and Yasmani Grandall, both players that are being drafted over 150 picks before Canha.
Steamer projects Canha for 25 home runs with a slash line of .254/.342/.460 while roster resource has him batting 5th in a loaded Oakland lineup. After an age 29 breakout, it is understandable that the market is not buying into Canha, but he is primed to provide a good return for bold players willing to buy into him at his current ADP.
Regardless of how you draft there is always a need for power. These 6 players are all going late in drafts and can help provide power from all over the diamond. If you decide to stack the speed early in your draft you can grab 2 or 3 of these guys to make sure that you stay competitive in home runs. If you’re determined to lead the league in home runs these are the guys to target after round 12 to supplement your early power.