Postponed: The Potential Fantasy Fallout
In the wake of the widespread pandemic known as the coronavirus, we find ourselves unable to get out of its way. The coronavirus has consumed an aspect of our lives, one way or another. This article's intent is not to be advantageous to the situation in any way. It is merely to help distract us from what is overtaking our lives and continue to focus on fantasy baseball. So grab the sanitizers and enjoy the read.
Let's take a look at how the potential shortened season would factor on individual players. At the moment, we have a few questions; when will the season start? When will it end? Who will it affect the most? How can I use this to my advantage? These are questions I hope to answer in some ways to give a better understanding of what might be in 2020.
The first two weeks of the MLB season have been postponed. So in those two weeks, if they don't make up any games, each team would lose roughly 13 games, and the MLB would lose about 190 games in total. Statistically, that means batters will lose plate appearances, and pitchers would lose innings. There is no certainty these will be played, or even more games will be missed. The lost opportunities will change the outlook for every player's value. So I have grouped players into four categories: Pitchers with innings limits, pitchers currently injured, hitters currently injured and suspended players.
Pitchers With Innings Limits
To get back to my previous point, as more of the season is lost, the number of available innings to be pitched will lessen. So some of the pitchers with inning limits will throw more similarly to the ones that don't. This would increase their values significantly as they become drafted much later. Below is a list of pitchers(and their Depth Chart projections) that fit this criterion:
Jesus Luzardo 151 IP / 3.83 ERA
Tyler Glasnow 157 IP / 3.59 ERA
Julio Urias 137 IP / 3.80 ERA
Shohei Ohtani 102 IP / 3.94 ERA
Sean Manaea 142 IP / 4.20 ERA
Luke Weaver 129 IP / 4.28 ERA
Lance McCullers Jr. 139 IP / 3.88 ERA
Pitchers Currently Injured
The previous month has been unbearable for pitchers and injuries. We have seen many aces go down and early-round picks looking like they won't live up to the price. If the season starts another 2-8 weeks later from the original opening day, these pitchers will increase value. Depending on where you draft them, you could be in for a significant return on investment.
Mike Clevinger ADP 34 March / ADP 21 January
Blake Snell ADP 38 March / ADP 32 January
Chris Sale ADP 103 March / ADP 36 January
Carlos Carrasco ADP 119 March / ADP 107 January
James Paxson ADP 152 March / ADP 84 January
Miles Mikolas ADP 245 March / ADP 215 January
Griffin Canning ADP 346 March / ADP 232 January
Hitters Currently Injured
Much like the injured pitchers, these hitters may have been drafted and then became her just after the draft. The fortunate part to a postponement of opening day is these hitters would be ready as opposed to if the season started on March 26th. Depending on when you select these players will help you maximize the added value. If you're drafting now, grab these hitters at this ADP before they rise back up.
Aaron Judge ADP 61 March / ADP 30 January
Giancarlo Stanton ADP 87 March / ADP 59 January
Eugenio Suarez ADP 74 March / ADP 63 January
Michael Conforto ADP 116 March / ADP 112 January
Willie Calhoun ADP 207 March / ADP 173 January
Yoenis Cespedes ADP 404 March / ADP 447 January
Suspended players are going to get the double whammy on this one. If the seasons shortened a significant amount of time, they would still be facing a loss of those games. The value on them would be devastating and render them nearly useless. I recommend you pass on them in any re-draft leagues that are still drafting.
Michael Pineda 60 games suspended
Domingo German 63 games suspended
This whole virus pandemic has created quite a rift in our fantasy baseball world. I hope the MLB sheds more light on the questions asked in the article. Until that happens, use some of the thought-processes to gain the advantage over the few weeks in your draft. There could b some remarkable players falling in drafts for reasons that aren't being factored in. Thank you for reading!
And lastly, be safe out there everyone!
Twitter - @davithius
*Statistical credits: Fangraphs, NFBC