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Outside Of The Box: Alec Mills

Outside the box is a daily article that is simple, fresh, and innovative. Here, we will be walking throw away pitchers to the pedestal for a quick examination of their skills.


On The Pedestal: Alec Mills


Current ADP: 474


Brief Examination: Alec Mills had a wild season last year totaling 11 starts while producing a 4.48 ERA, 5.44 FIP, and 4.81 SIERA. I say wild because in the midst of everything going on he managed to pitch a no-hitter last season.


Mills pitches for contact with his sinker and it worked well last year producing a 62.7% ground ball rate. The changeup he uses as his whiff pitch, it provided a 39.3 O-Swing% and 16.6 SwStr%. The curveball is another pitch he uses to create weak contact and that put up a 37 wRC+ and .034 ISO. The big hole in his repertoire is the four-seam. It is his second most thrown pitch and opposing hitters had a .449 wOBA. Not good.

Mills does have a ton of deception and tunneling going on here. Looking at his spin-based movement it is difficult for hitters to differentiate between pitches. This should lead to him overperforming his underlying metrics much like 2020. But that doesn’t necessarily mean he is a sub-four ERA pitcher.


Interesting Stat: For two years now, Mills has had elite movement with both his slider and changeup.


Role: Mills feels close to me but we can’t assume anything until he figures out what to do with that four-seam fastball. Based on ADP, I will likely have a few shares.