On The Ledge
The pitchers below have certainly hurt a lot of fantasy baseball owners in the past, leaving us wondering if we could trust them. Below are some mini deep dives into a few of those names. Figuring out what is real and what is a mirage in fantasy baseball provides a huge advantage.
Trevor Bauer is one of the more polarizing pitchers in the MLB. He had a breakout year in 2018 where he produced a 2.21 ERA, 2.44 FIP, and 22.9 K-BB%. Unfortunately, his 2019 was a completely different story as he provided a sub-par 4.48 ERA, 4.34 FIP, and 18.8 K-BB%. Thus leaving every fantasy baseball player pondering which Trevor Bauer is for real?
While digging into Trevor Bauer, the numbers and what is happening with this polarizing pitcher seems to lie within his arsenal.
Trevor Bauer’s four-seam fastball has never really been that good or utilized well. For instance, look at his fastballs pVAL by year.
The 12.5 pVAL is an extreme outlier compared to prior years. The first thought is velocity, but no significant changes there. The second thought is movement, but the horizontal movement hasn’t really changed either. This leaves his 2018 four-seam fastball as an outlier and if Alex Chamberlain has taught us anything lately it is that xwOBacon should be looked at to search for outliers. Here are Trevor Bauer's xwOBAcon by year.
In 2018 not only was his xwOBAcon out of the norm, but it was the only year that showed severe regression coming for his fastball based on wOBAcon. This leads us to believe that his four-seam in 2018 was lucky and perhaps will never be th