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  • Michael Simione

Early ADP Observations

Early ADP Observations

There have been a bunch of drafts on NFBC already and the ADP’s have been released. While some of these leagues are best-ball (which affects everyone’s picks) it is still very interesting to look at. The best thing about ADP is you can see trends with players. Below are some players, I have noticed that are either going too high or too low in my opinion. Please note that the pitching ADP’s below do include relief pitchers as NFBC pools them together.

Too High

Jack Flaherty

Pitcher NFBC ADP: 7

Overall NFBC ADP: 26

I’m not trying to shove this down everyone’s throats I swear. The fact that he is going as a top seven pitcher is just insane to me. If you follow me on twitter you already know my argument here. His fastball became elite out of nowhere and I am not willing to pick him this early hoping it is legit. Alex Fast recently said it best to myself and Mike Kurland on our Bases Loaded Podcast. You can’t take a half of a season from a player and roll with it. You have to digest and take in the entire season. I like Flaherty around the 12-15 range.

Flaherty’s second-half numbers on his fastball:

wOBA .218 - xwOBA .267 = -0.49

wOBAcon .259 - xwOBAcon .340 = -0.81

Both the third highed difference in the league (min 500 pitches).

Chris Paddack

Pitcher NFBC ADP: 14

Overall NFBC ADP: 52

Don’t get me wrong I do like Paddack and fully believe in his skills. He has an awesome fastball and changeup combo with a lot of upside. Paddack pitched really good for half of a season but then seemed to get worn out. Drafting him over players who have proven themselves for an entire season like Luis Castillo and Lucas Giolito, fathoms me. This could be the result of best ball drafts but I prefer him around the 20 pick range.

Brandon Woodruff

Pitcher NFBC ADP: 31

Overall NFBC ADP: 94

Woodruff is like Flaherty for me as I have questions on his pitching repertoire. There actually seems to be a lot of different opinions on him this year as I have heard analyst both question him and love him. I question him because he only throws two fastballs. While his fastballs are very impressive he has yet to develop a solid breaking pitch. Two pitch pitchers have to always be questioned especially if they are going around the top 30. I cannot justify Woodruff going before someone like Sonny Gray who has a plethora of pitches to use and has a proven history. If I wanted to take a shot on high upside here, I would much rather go with Zac Gallen.

Dakota Hudson

Pitcher NFBC ADP: 105

Overall NFBC ADP: 273

Hudson is actually going lower in the draft than I thought, but it’s still too high. He is going ahead of Keuchel, Cease, DeSclafani, and Chirinos. Hudson was super lucky in 2019, has no strikeout appeal, and is someone I don’t trust at all. Sure he created a lot of weak contact and groundballs but he has a low ceiling. 2019 was a career year for him and I firmly believe that. I won’t own him at all this year.

ERA - 3.35

FIP - 4.93

Difference: -1.58

That is the highest in the league.

Too Low

Lance Lynn

Pitcher NFBC ADP: 48

Overall NFBC ADP: 135

Lance Lynn doesn’t get the credit he deserves and honestly I didn’t realize it until recently. I posted a tweet when I notice both his cutter and curveball had a 0.0 Barrel% in 2019. That is quite amazing and the fact he was able to suppress home runs like that in 2019 is astonishing. On Reddit, a user named ImHereForTheKindness pointed out another great stat. Last year Lynn had 20 quality starts in 33 games. Lynn should be top 30.

Griffin Canning

Pitcher NFBC ADP: 86

Overall NFBC ADP: 222

I am still pretty shocked he is this low. While he finished with only a 4.58 ERA, he had a solid 17.2 K-BB%, and an awesome 13.8 SwStr%. His slider is so legit as it had a 21.7 SwStr% which puts it up there with some of the best in the game. Canning is going under pitchers like Stroman, Lucchesi, and Musgrove. I like Canning in the top 50 for pitchers.

Adrian Houser

Pitcher NFBC ADP: 103

Overall NFBC ADP: 270

Houser is a “Woodruff light.” Houser had two awesome fastballs in 2019 (13.7 pVAL). He finished the year with 18 starts, 111 innings, 3.72 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, and a 3.91 SIERA. Houser is really good at creating weak contact as he had a 53.4 GB% and his fastballs had a 3.5 Barrel%. I like Houser in the top 80.

Adrian Houser’s fastballs in the second half.

Four Seamer: 2nd in xwOBA and 6th in K%.

Two-seamer: 3rd in xwOBA and 9th in K%.

Dylan Bundy

Pitcher NFBC ADP: 129

Overall NFBC ADP: 343

Let the inflation begin! Bundy is finally out of Baltimore! His ADP will definitely rise and I will tell you why it deservedly should. Bundy has an awesome slider. A slider that he needs to throw a lot more, just like Patrick Corbin. The Angels are top 10 in the league in slider usage (thank you Alex Fast). Bundy’s slider had a 1.65 xFIP, .223 xwOBA, and 4.8 Barrel%. He just needs to stop throwing his fastball in the middle of the plate (easier said than done). I like Bundy in the top 100 as he should not be going behind the likes of Mike Fiers.

*All ADP as of 12/17