Deep Value Picks: ADP of 500 or Later
A lot of us are in leagues that consist of 15 teams or more. This means the player pool goes deep and you have to really know your late-round players. These are my super deep value picks all of which are going at the ADP of 500 or later. These will all be quick hits on why I like these pitchers. We have to keep in mind that this is late in the draft so each player has plenty of flaws. The players I pick have somewhat of an upside and are doing something right.
Pitcher ADP: 211
Kyle Wright is going late because he currently doesn’t have a spot in the rotation. But Hamels, Foltynewicz, and Newcomb can all be a little shaky in the injury/performance department. Wright did pitch in the majors last year for a short period of time providing a 6.11 FIP and 6.5 K-BB%. Not great stats here but this is what I see. His fastball underperformed last year with a -6.5 pVAL. In 2018 in the majors, it produced a 1.5 pVAL and always worked for him in the minors. I point that out because this gives him a second pitch. Wright has a good slider and in the majors, it had a 15.7 SwStr%. If he can put his fastball and slider together in 2020 he can provide some value once he gets an opportunity.
Pitcher ADP: 237
Thornton mainly throws a four-seam fastball, slider, cutter, and curveball. His pitches aren’t that bad but they aren’t that great either. The reason I like Thornton at 564 is he always performs in good matchups. Thornton was only blown up a few times last year. They were mostly against the Yankees (3x), Rays (2x), and Red Sox (2x). These are spots you shouldn’t start him anyway. And if you didn’t in 2019 you would have had a pitcher who gave you 131.1 innings with a 3.20 ERA, plus 11 starts with over five strikeouts.
Pitcher ADP: 240
Logan Webb came onto my radar thanks to my friend Jorge’s tweet (see below). We didn’t see a lot of Webb but as he said he was very unlucky with a 5.22 ERA, 4.12 FIP, and 3.89 xFIP. He gives you a decent K-BB% and produces a lot of weak contact. His two breaking pitches (slider and changeup) both performed really well. Plus his home ballpark works in his favor and there should be no worry about his rotation spot. Well worth a shot at 572.
Pitcher ADP: 270
I have been talking about Norris a lot recently. He has two breaking balls that I love, his changeup and slider. His changeup has a 20.2 SwStr% and 72.5 GB%. Basically, if you don’t strike out you are grounding out. The main issue with him is the third time through the order. If the Tigers can let him go just five innings he can provide tremendous value. The biggest fear is they keep him at three-inning outings but I don’t see how they can justify that. While the wins will be lacking due to the offense behind him he still provides some substantial value at 636.
Pitcher ADP: 289
It’s funny I have a friend who knew Kay when he was younger and said he basically just eats fast food all day. Which makes me like him more. Kay only had two starts in 2019 but showed promise in AAA as he posted a 2.50 ERA. Kay has a good fastball/changeup combo that comes with a curveball. At 682 I don’t see why you shouldn’t take a shot on a young pitcher who can provide upside.
Pitcher ADP: 315
Mike Montgomery has a five-pitch arsenal that makes you shrug your shoulders. His best pitch is his changeup but he has a terrible sinker that he throws too often. Montgomery was on fire in August last year as he posted a 2.45 ERA and 18.3 K-BB%. All of the other months his ERA was above four. What he did in August was up his changeup and curveball usage. But come September he reduced his curveball usage by 4% and changeup by 2%. At 733 he might be worth a shot because he could make the right tangible change
*ADP as of 1/2