"30 Over" Series Part Six

About The 30 Over Series

The SP Streamer “30 Over” series will be about 30 players who I think will outperform their ADP and current market value. This idea actually stems from high-stakes player Phil Dussault. In a Twitter thread discussing accountability for analysts, he suggested that a good analyst should be able to come up with 30 to 50 players that they like more than the market. They also should be right on about 60% of them. This was an interesting idea so I decided to test myself this year to see how I do.

This series will be multiple parts because I would like to dive into each player and provide as much evidence I can to support my thought process. There will be both pitching and hitting. Here we go!

Part One: Click Here

Part Two: Click Here

Part Three: Click Here

Part Four: Click Here

Part Five: Click Here

17) Framber Valdez, HOU ADP 88

Framber Valdez is such an appealing pitcher to me, to the point where I just want to explode and throw all of my thoughts into this first paragraph. But that would make for terrible writing so let’s stay organized here. In 2020 he burst onto the scene with a 3.57 ERA, 2.85 FIP, and 26.4 K%. With the lack of track record, many still question his ability.

The reason Valdez excites me so much is due to his arsenal. His main pitch is a sinker, one that he utilizes more so against right-handed hitters (RHH). This works well because RHH certainly struggle against it whereas left-handed hitters struggle against the curveball. That’s the first check box, he utilizes his sinker well. Sometimes opposing hitters do make quality contact on the pitch but it isn’t often. His sinker had a 61.3 GB% against it with an extremely low 8.8% fly-ball rate. Hitters hit this on the ground a lot and basically only hit it for singles. This is likely due to him not only locating it well but because of the elite vertical movement on it.

Framber’s best pitch is his curveball and hot damn is it beautiful. The way it just loops in while also drastically moving vertically is a thing of beauty. This pitch is the sh*t and last season it posted a 19.3 SwStr%, 36.3 CSW% (5th amongst all curveballs), and 25 wRC+ against. What Framber likes to do is get a second strike with his sinker up and in on RHH. He then follows it through with his curveball to finish the hitter. It is such a great sequence and one that was seemingly unstoppable at times.

He also tampers with a changeup and four-seam from time to time. The changeup has some potential due to movement but he does need to learn to tone down the velocity to get that drastic change with his sinker.

Overall Framber Valdez has two elite pitches. He uses them both really well by sequencing them nicely and tunneling them to perfection. If he can grow that changeup he will truly be unstoppable. Another benefit is that the Astros let him throw so expect 170-180 innings from him.

18) Josh Staumont, KCR ADP 408

Yes, they signed Greg Holland but I believe Josh Stuamont is the best pitcher in that bullpen. Staumont found new velocity in his four-seam fastball raising it from 95.9 MPH to 97.9 MPH. This took his four-seam from having average vertical movement to elite vertical movement. Check out the fastball results from 2019 to 2020.

Clearly took his four-seam to another level and made it one of the most dangerous in the game. As for the curveball, it has a ton of movement as well and he takes a real north to south approach with both pitches. Sometimes he struggles with his command which leads to some hard contact but overall he works the pitch rather well.

Holland pitched great last season due to a pitch mix change but he is towards the end of his career and it’s hard to tell how legit that is. Staumont will certainly grab some saves regardless but I wouldn’t be shocked if Holland regresses and Staumont takes the job.

19) Tanner Rainey, WSN ADP 305

I’ve speculated all offseason that Rainey would take the closer role since he is by far the best arm in that bullpen. Well in recent news the Washington Nationals front office has stated that he indeed is the likely front runner.

A big argument against Rainey is the high walk rate. Although he brought it down to 9.3% projections have that coming back up to around 14%. This isn’t ideal of course but the notable projected HR/9 of 1.05 certainly helps. Do I think he is around these projections? Not really. I see a sub 10% walk rate with a 1.30 HR/9.

What makes Rainey so good though is the arsenal. Both of his pitches are just fantastic. The four-seam fastball pumps in at over 96 MPH and produced a 17.0 SwStr%, 4.1 pVAL, and 34.6 CSW%. That makes it one of the best fastballs in the league. The only downfall is the sometimes shaky command which lead to a .286 ISO and 12.9 Barrel rate. If he can raise it into the zone more consistently he could take another step forward.

Next up is the fabulous slider. With an insane vertical movement of 38.4 inches this pitch finished with a .221 wOBAcon, 0.0 Barrel%, 34.2 SwStr%, and 28.6 Contact%. Want to know how insane that SwStr% is? That was the highest in the entire league. Not only that but his contact rate on the pitch was the second-lowest of any pitch in the league. One might consider this the best pitch in the league.

As you can see with two great pitches Rainey is the clear option in the Nationals bullpen. Sure the command on the fastball needs to be better but that slider is just way too good. I will be grabbing Rainey everywhere I can.

20) Ketel Marte, ARI ADP 79

After an amazing breakout campaign in 2019, Ketel Marte had a down year. He basically regressed in every category including home runs, wRC+, ISO, OPS, OBP, and SLG. With that comes a drop in ADP and now he is being taken in drafts where the acquisition cost makes sense.

While the surface-level stats don’t really match up he did stay stagnant in certain areas. If you look at plate discipline he actually improved, which likely lead to the improved strikeout rate. He swung less but made more contact both in the zone and outside of the zone. His zone contact went up over three percent getting him to a 93.3% mark. That’s a gaudy number seeing that the league average is just 84.2%. He also improved his SwStr% from 7.8% to 5.6% again showing better contact. In terms of batting average, it is all there and Marte still looks like a .300 hitter.

Now we all knew the drop in power was going to happen, but not this drastic. The barrel rate plummeted from 9.3% to 3.7%. The good thing is that the hard-hit rate stuck and his max exit velocity is still there. Max exit velocity is important because it shows power potential and this lets us know it is still there.

Projection systems have Marte hitting .287 with 20 home runs, 76 RBI, and seven stolen bases. I think we see in between 2019 and his projections. I see a .300 hitter with 25 home runs, eight stolen bases, and 180 runs + RBI. That’s valuable at pick 79 and that means he will do a little bit of everything for your team making him a solid option.

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