"30 Over" Series Part Seven

About The 30 Over Series

The SP Streamer “30 Over” series will be about 30 players who I think will outperform their ADP and current market value. This idea actually stems from high-stakes player Phil Dussault. In a Twitter thread discussing accountability for analysts, he suggested that a good analyst should be able to come up with 30 to 50 players that they like more than the market. They also should be right on about 60% of them. This was an interesting idea so I decided to test myself this year to see how I do.

This series will be multiple parts because I would like to dive into each player and provide as much evidence I can to support my thought process. There will be both pitching and hitting. Here we go!

Part One: Click Here

Part Two: Click Here

Part Three: Click Here

Part Four: Click Here

Part Five: Click Here

Part Six: Click Here

21) Ryan Yarbrough, TBR ADP 243

While pitching for the Rays is an instant value crusher for pitchers, Yarbrough is going late enough where it won’t matter as much. To me, he will be a full-time starter who can reach 160 innings for the first time. His successful 2020 season where he posted a 3.56 ERA, 3.80 FIP, and career-best 13.3 SwStr% likely stems from the increased usage of his changeup.

He was discussed in our membership discord and as you break down his overall game plan you can’t help but fall in love. He loves his cutter changeup combination and is really good at rotating the two in different counts. They both tunnel well and come in the exact same way. He loves to go towards the outside part of the zone against right-handed hitters (RHH). Check out these two videos below.

The first one is Yarbrough is setting up Vlad Jr with a cutter outside of the zone on the edge.

The second video (below) is Yarbrough coming in with the change from the same angle except for this time it drops vertically completely fooling Vlad. He does this often and it’s beautiful to watch.

By increasing the changeup usage and pairing it with the cutter more than ever you saw some gaudy increases in his plate discipline numbers. While still throwing inside the zone almost as much as last year he seemingly dropped his zone contact rate by four percent. What’s most impressive though, is hitters swung more against Yarbrough, three percent more. Yet they missed more than ever with a five percent rise in O-Swing% and a three percent rise in SwStr%. To recap, opposing hitters swung more than ever, and missed more than ever both in and out of the zone.

Overall he hits on everything with his arsenal. The cutter he throws for strikes at will while also getting whiffs. The changeup is his big swing and miss pitch with a 44.2 O-Swing% and 18.5 SwStr%. The sinker induces weak contact on a consistent basis with a .240 wOBAcon. Lastly, the curveball which he throws 11% of the time poses as a swing and miss threat as well. A true four-pitch arsenal.

The gains Ryan Yarbrough saw seem legit and with the new increase in whiffs as well as the beautiful tunneling he seems to be going too late in drafts.

22) Brad Keller, KCR ADP 307

Sure Brad Keller finished last season with a 2.47 ERA and sure it comes with a 4.82 SIERA and abysmal 8.4 K-BB%. Stop right there! There are a few reasons you should be loving Brad Keller in drafts this year and your boy is about to tell you why.

Let’s talk innings. It’s common knowledge that innings pitched will be extremely scarce this year and we will likely see a lot of injuries at the pitcher position. In 2019 Keller threw for 165.1 innings meaning any limitations should be removed from him when it comes to workload. With innings comes counting stats and Keller is likely to see a good amount of innings. When it came to innings pitched per game Keller was ranked 14th in the league at 6.1. That’s the same as Gerrit Cole. Then when it comes to pitches per game he was ranked 17th, tied with deGrom and one less than Nola, Valdez, Castillo, and Darvish. Clearly, the Royals aren’t afraid to let Keller pitch deep into games. Tack that on with a solid floor and we have perceived value.

The baseball gods blessed me with great timing because Eno Sarris (GOAT) recently released an article on seam-shifted wake. In essence, a seam-shifted wake means a pitcher has two fastballs that are thrown at the same axis, with similar velos and similar spin rates. But the two have very different movements making it extremely hard for a hitter to hit. This could lead to pitches over performing.

As you can see above in the spin-based section the red (four-seam) and orange (sinker) are identical. Except the four-seam moves vertically while the sinker moves horizontally. Now tack on his immense slider and you have an arsenal that is extremely hard to hit. It’s no wonder he had a 3.7 Barrel% against while the league average was 7.6%.

23) David Peterson, NYM ADP 358

David Peterson made his major league debut last season and pitched to the tune of 49.2 innings with a 3.44 ERA, 4.52 FIP, and 7.8 K-BB%. Peterson is another pitcher who doesn’t have the best underlying numbers and some might feel hesitant to take him for this reason. Fret not though!

When you look at arsenal with Peterson you will see a stellar slider with a decent four-seam, sinker, and changeup. His main strengths are the four-seam and slider. They pair well together and both for the most part induced weak contact. The main issue with Peterson was the command on his fastball, something that has haunted him from the minors. Just look at his 18.2% walk rate on this pitch and you’ll quickly realize it’s a problem. While it is something he has to work on and easily can fix in an offseason, even if it doesn’t improve he can still replicate his 2020 season.

The main reason is something you won’t see on paper. As most of you know I am a Mets fan and I promise that isn’t clouding my judgment, but I did watch all of his starts and noticed something. When Peterson is in trouble with his back against the wall, he kicks into another gear. Scherzer has it and while I’m not comparing the two as overall pitchers they both show that trait. Expect Peterson to over-perform his peripherals and provide, yet again, a sub-four ERA.