About The 30 Over Series
The SP Streamer “30 Over” series will be about 30 players who I think will outperform their ADP and current market value. This idea actually stems from high-stakes player Phil Dussault. In a Twitter thread discussing accountability for analysts, he suggested that a good analyst should be able to come up with 30 to 50 players that they like more than the market. They also should be right on about 60% of them. This was an interesting idea so I decided to test myself this year to see how I do.
This series will be multiple parts because I would like to dive into each player and provide as much evidence I can to support my thought process. There will be both pitching and hitting. Here we go!
Part One: Click Here
Part Two: Click Here
Part Three: Click Here
11) Jordan Romano, TOR ADP 220
Jordan Romano burst onto the scene in 2020 pitching 15 innings with a 1.23 ERA. Romano always had strikeout potential even in 2019 he had a 28.0 strikeout rate. Which begs the question what did he change that could explain his recent success?
For one he added velocity to his four-seam fastball.
Hot damn what a difference. Look at the dip in contact percentage (!!). This is simply explained by the increase in vertical movement. The vertical movement went from 0.2 to 0.6 on the four-seam. That’s the difference between average and above-average. Clearly, it paid dividends.
Second, he made a pitch mix change. Instead of going fastball heavy, he went slider heavy. The slider is his main swing and miss pitch and also creates a lot of chases. These two changes combined dropped Romano’s ERA from 7.63 in 2019 to 1.23 in 2020. Now the LOB% of 98.0% and BABIP of .207 won’t stick. But the 3.12 FIP, 2.40 xFIP, and 2.59 SIERA still show how good he will be.
The Blue Jays are an emerging young team and should be very competitive in 2021. Romano sits on top of the closer role and will have plenty of opportunities to get saves. A relief pitcher with two plus pitches, a high strikeout rate, and on a good team seems like a no brainer to me. Just ask Bo Bichette. “He’s a beast, man,” says Bichette to Sportsnet reporter Arden Zwelling. “The way he came to summer camp was unreal. His mentality – you could see it in his eyes. You could see it in the way he went about his business. I think he is going to be good for a long time.”
12) Nick Solak, TEX ADP 170
Admittingly I have a weird “thing” for Solak and have always liked the way he plays. He didn’t have a spectacular season in 2020 but there seems to be a lot more to him. What is most intriguing with Solak is that he can contribute in almost every category and comes in at a decent price.
When it comes to individual pitches Solak is able to make decent contact no matter what is thrown at him. If you look at his run values against all types of pitches last year the only pitch he really struggled against was four-seam fastballs. But we should see some improvement because while he had a negative five-run value in 2020 he had a positive eight-run value in 2019. Plus if you look at his xwOBA against fastballs last season it comes in at .334 which is pretty good.
On top of being well rounded with facing different pitch types, he also brings solid plate discipline. He is above average in O-Swing%, O-Contact%, Z-Contact%, Contact%, and SwStr%. The walk rate isn’t great but the strikeout rate is. He should put a lot of balls in play and with his speed, the hits and counting stats should come.
Although I acknowledge my own bias I still think to the normal eye he brings a lot of upside. Getting a hitter this late in the game who can contribute in almost every category is pretty valuable making Solak one of my favorite draft picks for 2021.
13) Brady Singer, KCR ADP 212
When the announcement of the shortened season happened the Royals organization decided to take advantage. They have a nice young rotation and this gave them an opportunity to work with their pitchers. Brady Singer was one of them and he got the call to make 12 starts in the 2020 season. He finished with a 4.06 ERA, 4.08 FIP, and 4.29 SIERA. All not bad at all and above the league average ERA of 4.50. At age 24 we might see Singer take a step forward and I am about to tell you why.
Let’s pick apart his pitch usage in August and September.
There might be some issues when it comes to his pitch classification. Singer didn’t magically start to throw a sinker and above you see what Baseball Savant has but meanwhile Brooks Baseball has him always throwing a sinker and not a four-seam. Either way, both sites agree that he started to throw his slider more.
This is important because the slider is fantastic and making it his most thrown pitch is everything you want to see. Overall it produced a .335 wOBAcon, 6.4 Barrel rate, and 15.2 SwStr%. But when he upped the usage it became even better. In September is had a .180 wOBAcon which is astounding. While it isn’t sustainable it’s still great to see.
If you look at Alex Chamberlains deserved ERA which is based on the quality of contact his 5.12 dERA in August dipped to 1.46 in September.
Don’t get me wrong Singer has a ways to go and if he in fact only throws a sinker and slider he really needs to add a third pitch. Overall he induces a lot of weak contact and should rack up some innings in 2021 making his 212 ADP a bit low for my liking, thus truly believing he will outperform his draft capital.
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