"30 Over" Series Part Four

About The 30 Over Series

The SP Streamer “30 Over” series will be about 30 players who I think will outperform their ADP and current market value. This idea actually stems from high-stakes player Phil Dussault. In a Twitter thread discussing accountability for analysts, he suggested that a good analyst should be able to come up with 30 to 50 players that they like more than the market. They also should be right on about 60% of them. This was an interesting idea so I decided to test myself this year to see how I do.

This series will be multiple parts because I would like to dive into each player and provide as much evidence I can to support my thought process. There will be both pitching and hitting. Here we go!

Part One: Click Here

Part Two: Click Here

Part Three: Click Here

11) Jordan Romano, TOR ADP 220

Jordan Romano burst onto the scene in 2020 pitching 15 innings with a 1.23 ERA. Romano always had strikeout potential even in 2019 he had a 28.0 strikeout rate. Which begs the question what did he change that could explain his recent success?

For one he added velocity to his four-seam fastball.

Hot damn what a difference. Look at the dip in contact percentage (!!). This is simply explained by the increase in vertical movement. The vertical movement went from 0.2 to 0.6 on the four-seam. That’s the difference between average and above-average. Clearly, it paid dividends.

Second, he made a pitch mix change. Instead of going fastball heavy, he went slider heavy. The slider is his main swing and miss pitch and also creates a lot of chases. These two changes combined dropped Romano’s ERA from 7.63 in 2019 to 1.23 in 2020. Now the LOB% of 98.0% and BABIP of .207 won’t stick. But the 3.12 FIP, 2.40 xFIP, and 2.59 SIERA still show how good he will be.

The Blue Jays are an emerging young team and should be very competitive in 2021. Romano sits on top of the closer role and will have plenty of opportunities to get saves. A relief pitcher with two plus pitches, a high strikeout rate, and on a good team seems like a no brainer to me. Just ask Bo Bichette. “He’s a beast, man,” says Bichette to Sportsnet reporter Arden Zwelling. “The way he came to summer camp was unreal. His mentality – you could see it in his eyes. You could see it in the way he went about his business. I think he is going to be good for a long time.”

12) Nick Solak, TEX ADP 170

Admittingly I have a weird “thing” for Solak and have always liked the way he plays. He didn’t have a spectacular season in 2020 but there seems to be a lot more to him. What is most intriguing with Solak is that he can contribute in almost every category and comes in at a decent price.

When it comes to individual pitches Solak is able to make decent contact no matter what is thrown at him. If you look at his run values against all types of pitches last year the only pitch he really struggled against was four-seam fastballs. But we should see some improvement because while he had a negative five-run value in 2020 he had a positive eight-run value in 2019. Plus if you look at his xwOBA against fastballs last season it comes in at .334 which is pretty good.