"30 Over" Series Part Five

About The 30 Over Series

The SP Streamer “30 Over” series will be about 30 players who I think will outperform their ADP and current market value. This idea actually stems from high-stakes player Phil Dussault. In a Twitter thread discussing accountability for analysts, he suggested that a good analyst should be able to come up with 30 to 50 players that they like more than the market. They also should be right on about 60% of them. This was an interesting idea so I decided to test myself this year to see how I do.

This series will be multiple parts because I would like to dive into each player and provide as much evidence I can to support my thought process. There will be both pitching and hitting. Here we go!

Part One: Click Here

Part Two: Click Here

Part Three: Click Here

Part Four: Click Here

14) Pablo Lopez, MIA ADP 118

My love for Pablo Lopez runs deep and as I currently watch Lord of the Rings I see myself saying “my precious,” when thinking about him. If you read my work you know I tend to gravitate towards pitchers with high groundball rates and high strikeout rates. Well, Lopez is one of them. Last season he had a 3.61 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 52.2 GB%, and 24.6K%.

Lopez hits on all angles, he has a four-seam that can produce whiffs in the zone. A changeup that creates whiffs out of the zone. And a sinker that he can throw for strikes at will while inducing weak contact. That’s what you want in a pitcher, something I learned from Nick Pollack and Lopez hits on all of those.

His changeup is especially fantastic, in 2019 he had a 42.4 O-Swing% and 17.2 SwStr%. In 2020 it had a 43.0 O-Swing% and 17.8 SwStr%. That makes two seasons now where Lopez’s changeup has been phenomenal. It certainly has become one of the better changeups in the league.

We also have to remember that Pablo Lopez was pitching really well in 2019 before his injury. An injury that derailed his performance and completely tanked his surface-level numbers.

Overall his statcast page is filled with red for expected stats, but what is most impressive is his movement. His changeup isn’t only elite in horizontal movement but also vertical movement. Crazy enough, if you look at the sinker you’ll see the same thing. This is why Lopez is so tough to hit because he has so much movement with his offerings.

Overall we are looking at Lopez reaching a whole other level. Comparing his 2019 to his 2020 season, he dropped in EV, Barrel%, Launch Angle, and others. He keeps trending the right way and consistently is improving his craft.

15) Ty France, SEA ADP 294

In 2020 Ty France was able to accumulate 155 plate appearances hitting .305 with four home runs and 23 RBI. He also tacked on a 132 wRC+, .368 OBP, and .362 wOBA. Making his shortened season an enticing one.

What you have to love about France is the plate discipline. He has a solid eye as he posted a 28.8 O-Swing%, 77.3 Contact%, and 10.4 SwStr% all of which are above league average. Where France really shined was inside the zone. On all pitches inside the zone, France had a .295 ISO and .475 wOBA. That wOBA is just a tad under Mike Trout and a little above Freddie Freeman.

What makes France one of my favorite picks is the fact that he will have a starting job. In Jeff Zimmerman’s latest mining the news we find that the Mariners plan on playing France as the DH and then eventually third base. Zimmerman also states (and I agree with) that France is only projected for 100 games and with a full season of at-bats he could hit 20 plus home runs. This is huge. Especially since at this point in the draft, there are a ton of hitters with playing time concerns. Take France with confidence.

16) Justus Sheffield, SEA ADP 279

Last season, it finally happened. Justus Sheffield did what Yankees fans longed for, except it happened in a Seattle Mariners uniform. Sheffield made some big strides in 2020 and performed the way we all knew he could. He pitched 55.1 innings with a 3.58 ERA and 3.17 FIP.

Overall all three of his pitches provide above-average vertical movement which bodes well seeing that they all produce negative run values. Not just that but Sheffield utilizes his pitches really well and seems to have full control of what he does.

If you were to watch game film on Sheffield you would see the tremendous tunneling ability he has with his slider and sinker. Against right-handed hitters (RHH) both come in on the inside of the plate by the hitter’s waist. What makes it so problematic for hitters is one is a fastball with a slight sink and the other is a slider that just drops off the face of the earth. Sheffield uses these two pitches to constantly toy with RHH and makes it virtually impossible for them to create any kind of solid contact.

When it comes to left-handed hitters (LHH) Sheffield might as well just throw his slider every time. LHH against this pitch held a measly .177 wOBAcon and 0.0 Barrel%. So while his sinker and slider take care of RHH through tunneling his slider takes care of LHH with ease.

Now I know Sheffield’s stacast page doesn’t look great but if you really look deep his overall weak contact numbers are great. Overall he had a .304 wOBAcon, 3.7 Barrel%, and 50.3 GB%. All great numbers and if you look at Alex Chamberlains deserved ERA which is based on the quality of contact Sheffield should have had a 3.14 ERA. Sure Sheffield won’t be getting you a lot of strikeouts but he sure will get you solid ratios and to me presents a high floor. Expect him to provide you with draft-day value.