About The 30 Over Series
The SP Streamer “30 Over” series will be about 30 players who I think will outperform their ADP and current market value. This idea actually stems from high-stakes player Phil Dussault. In a Twitter thread discussing accountability for analysts, he suggested that a good analyst should be able to come up with 30 to 50 players that they like more than the market. They also should be right on about 60% of them. This was an interesting idea so I decided to test myself this year to see how I do.
This series will be multiple parts because I would like to dive into each player and provide as much evidence I can to support my thought process. There will be both pitching and hitting. Here we go!
Part One: Click Here
Part Two: Click Here
Part Three: Click Here
Part Four: Click Here
Part Five: Click Here
Part Six: Click Here
Part Seven: Click Here
24) Luke Weaver, LAA ADP 394
After a breakout season in 2019, Weaver fell back to his Cardinals days with a 6.58 ERA. He didn't really change much in terms of arsenal compared to 2019 and I can see a decent rebound with him putting up around a four ERA.
What’s interesting about Weaver is he has a high Command+ (111) and a decent QOS (stuff metric) of 96. Not a lot of pitchers have that combination unless they are elite, which leaves me thinking a bounce back is more likely. Fellow writer Victor Akintola (@AwesomeVictorAA) wrote a wonderful segment on him. He points out that Weaver struggled with hitting the zone when it came to his cutter. He has a career 48.5% zone rate with the pitch and last season he had a 34.2% zone rate. This left his fastball more susceptible to opposing hitters. This seems fixable with Weaver’s above-average command, plus he has shown in previous seasons he can hit the zone with it.
His ADP could be a good spot to take upside and he would be a great addition if that is what you are looking for at this point in the draft. A lot of underlying metrics trend towards improvement. We know the skills are there, he just has to put it together. You can Victor’s article here.
25) Tyler Mahle, CIN ADP 160
We have been waiting forever for Tyler Mahle to get his shot and he finally did in 2020. In nine starts he had an impressive 3.59 ERA, 3.88 FIP, and 29.9 K%.
Mahle had a 13.8 SwStr% which is elite. Comparatively, in 2019 and 2018 his swinging strike rate was roughly around nine percent. We see one major difference and that is his slider.
See how that yellow line just stops, well it is hard to see but there is a little yellow dot high up for the year 2020. His new slider took him to another level because for a few seasons now everyone was waiting for a breaking ball to emerge. It pairs nicely with his four-seam and split-finger. The four-seam is and always has been an elite pitch. It moves up and in making it virtually impossible to make contact with.
With solid command and three plus pitches, Mahle could be undervalued next season. He made a legitimate pitch mix change allowing you to take his shortened season into consideration. The Reds have been great with their pitchers and Mahle will become a product of that.
26) Michael Lorenzen, CIN ADP 390
Jeff Zimmerman found in his mining the news that the Reds think he could potentially be a starter in 2021. Lorenzen is very intriguing.
He has a deep arsenal with six pitches and four of them he throws over 15% of the time. He holds a plus fastball that creates a ton of whiffs, a changeup and cutter that create a lot of chases, and a slider that does a little bit of everything. To boot all of his pitches have above-average movement. He excelled in producing weak contact and basically hits in every category you want to see. The only slight flaw is his high walk rate. But that could be by design since a lot of the Reds pitchers trend this way.
When having Lorenzen on our podcast he mentioned Trevor Bauer and how much he learned from him. Especially when it came to training. He said he has always trained to be a starter and would love to pitch 180 innings. Unfortunately, it isn’t completely up to him but it sounds like he is built for it.
Lorenzen goes late in drafts, to the point where he is a no-brainer especially with a spot in the rotation.
27) Dane Dunning, TEX ADP 280
Dane Dunning has a powerful sinker/slider combination that stifled a lot of hitters in 2020. The walk rate isn't the best but it makes sense since he tried to get chases out of the zone quite often.
He seemed to come down to earth a little in the final month producing a 4.65 FIP and 5.02 xFIP. He is a young pitcher though and both of his pitches have above-average movement with high strikeout potential.
The slider is placed down and away while the four-seams are attracted to the edges. The sinker command is a little worrisome with some middle-middle on the heat map but it certainly can be worked on. Again this is only a small worry because overall it produced an -8 run value last season.
Dunning’s spin-based movement is interesting. The sinker and four-seam are basically identical and with the way the slider moves they tunnel really well together. Which could lead to Dunning outperforming his underlying metrics.
28) Sonny Gray, CIN ADP 63
Sonny Gray had a much better season than what his numbers show. Gray had two bad starts in a row that really inflated his numbers. Overall between 2019 and 2020, he holds a 3.07 ERA and 3.33 FIP. Both are very impressive and towards the top compared to the rest of the league.
The best thing about Gray is his deep arsenal. He has four viable options to go to in his sinker, curveball, four-seam, and slider. All of his pitches finished with a positive pVAL proving that he knows how to utilize all of them. Every single one of his pitches produced a 5.7 Barrel% or less. Three out of four an above-average wOBAcon. I have to mention the slider for a second because it has the most insane movement. For vertical movement, it is 5.8 inches above average. For horizontal movement, it is 10.0 inches above average (!!).
Gray has a high floor and seems to be a safe bet for the upcoming season. The only worry could be the defense behind him, as he is a ground ball pitcher. Personally, I think he is being overlooked and has one of the safest floors early on in drafts.
29) Avisail Garcia, MIL ADP 297
The entire Brewers team has a down year and it definitely leaves me curious as to maybe they heavily relied on game footage in the previous years. Avisail was definitely a part of that as he hit .238 with just two home runs and a .296 wOBA.
At age 29 you wouldn’t necessarily expect regression. So let’s look at some of Garcia’s numbers and chalk this up to the shortened season potentially messing with Garcia. In his career, he has averaged a .271 average, 102 wRC+, .151 ISO, and .321 wOBA. In 2020 he had a .238 average, 82 wRC+, .088 ISO, and .296 wOBA.
What about plate discipline? In his career, he has averaged an 81.7 Z-Contact%, 69.9 Contact%, and 17.2 SwStr%. In 2020 he had a 78.7 Z-Contact%, 67.6 Contact%, and 17.5 SwStr%.
I just don’t buy it from Garcia, it was a weird and wonky season and might have gotten the best of him. Even if you don’t think he will put up 2019 numbers and regress slightly you still get someone who will hit around 20 home runs with a decent average and near 10 stolen bases. Most importantly you are getting a player who will likely see 600 plate appearances. Plus you are getting him basically for free.
30) Bryan Reynolds, PIT ADP 275
This was wild to see from Bryan Reynolds. In 2020 he had seven home runs and hit .189. He hit just .189 (!). Since Reynolds came onto the scene in A- with the Giants, his lowest batting average ever was .302. For projection systems to have him hitting .262 makes no sense to me. His BABIP alone last year should set off alarms, it was at .231. His lowest BABIP at any level was .362 and in 2019 he was at .387 in the majors. Reynolds will have a high BABIP for his career and getting a high average player who could touch 20 home runs this late in drafts has a lot of perceived value.